Calculated Risk

Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

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Product Details :

Genre : Social Science
Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Release : 2015-11-10
Total Pages : 288 Pages
ISBN : 9781439127094


A Calculated Risk

A Calculated Risk

A female financial whiz plans the perfect bank heist in this “high-tech, high-stakes” thriller from the #1 international-bestselling author of The Eight (The Washington Post). Verity Banks is the one of the most powerful women in finance, but she still reports to a man. Her boss not only refuses to implement her security plan to safeguard customers’ deposits, he also sabotages her shot at becoming director of security at the Federal Reserve. Outraged, Verity decides to take revenge by hitting her boss where it will hurt the most: right in his company’s balance sheet. She is about to begin her assault when she hears from the last person she ever expected to see again, Zoltan Tor. A brilliant computer scientist who taught Verity everything she knows, Zoltan will help her if she agrees to an outlandish wager: Which of them can steal $1 billion, invest it to make $30 million in three months, and return it before anyone notices? Verity can use a computer; Zoltan will do it the old-fashioned way. To beat Zoltan at his own game, Verity will risk her fortune, her professional reputation—and her life. This ebook features an illustrated biography of Katherine Neville including rare images from her life and travels.

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Katherine Neville
Publisher : Open Road Media
Release : 2015-07-21
Total Pages : 401 Pages
ISBN : 9781504013680


Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks

Includes an InCryptid novella: Singing the comic-con blues (pages 357-422).

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Seanan McGuire
Publisher : Penguin
Release : 2021-02-23
Total Pages : 450 Pages
ISBN : 9780756411817


Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks

Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.

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Product Details :

Genre : Science
Author : Joseph V. Rodricks
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2006-11-23
Total Pages : 358 Pages
ISBN : 9781139459518


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

After getting her life right where she wanted it, ex-US national 2nd place climber Leslie McAllister gets pushed out of her comfort zone when the company she works for is sold and she's asked to accept a new position in Boston. CJ Broadmore needs to learn to climb and fast if she wants a position doing stunt work on a new film. Fighting her family's push, she wants to find her own way and Leslie just may be her ticket to the goal she's been driving toward. Can they work together to achieve what they both want?

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Katherine Rupley
Publisher : Bella Books
Release : 2021-09-21
Total Pages : Pages
ISBN : 1642472662


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs—save for an account of his role in the Gemini program—before the tragic launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, which took his life and those of Edward White and Roger Chaffee. The international prestige of winning the Moon Race cannot be understated, and Grissom played a pivotal and enduring role in securing that legacy for the United States. Indeed, Grissom was first and foremost a Cold Warrior, a member of the first group of Mercury astronauts whose goal it was to beat the Soviet Union to the moon. Drawing on extensive interviews with fellow astronauts, NASA engineers, family members, and friends of Gus Grissom, George Leopold delivers a comprehensive survey of Grissom’s life that places his career in the context of the Cold War and the history of human spaceflight. Calculated Risk: The Supersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom adds significantly to our understanding of that tumultuous period in American history. --Publisher

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Product Details :

Genre : Biography & Autobiography
Author : George Leopold
Publisher : Purdue University Press
Release : 2016
Total Pages : 378 Pages
ISBN : 9781557537454


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

She thought she was finally safe, But her past won’t let her go. Sheriff’s deputy Tanner Dempsey is just doing his job when he stops a shoplifter trying to steal diapers and formula. But something about this frightened young woman makes him want to do more. Bree Daniels is grateful for Tanner’s help, but there’s so much she can never tell him… The truth is dangerous to everyone she lets into her life—and could be lethal to Tanner.

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Janie Crouch
Publisher : Harlequin
Release : 2019-07-01
Total Pages : 256 Pages
ISBN : 9781488045936


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

When John Dunlop gives Judy Scott a lift to Glencoe on his motorbike, both are surprised when a relationship develops. But for John all passions must be relegated to the demands of the big climb.

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Product Details :

Genre :
Author : Dougal Haston
Publisher : Bton Wicks Publications
Release : 2006-03-20
Total Pages : 192 Pages
ISBN : 1898573662


A Calculated Risk

A Calculated Risk

In the aftermath of World War II and the Holocaust, the Truman White House led the effort to establish the state of Israel. But, was it inevitable that the U.S. would endorse the concept of a Jewish state? Was U.S. policy entirely pro-Jewish? To what extent did the State Department influence Presidents Roosevelt and Truman in regard to Palestine? How aware were the two presidents of the probable consequences of their decisions about the Middle East? A Calculated Risk explores these questions and more. It examines the intricate international diplomacy that helped pave the way for the creation of the Jewish state and evaluates the conflicting pressures brought to bear on the U.S. with respect to the Palestine question, and specifically the recognition of Israel, from 1942-1948. Impartial, well researched, and highly readable, it tells the complete story of the balancing act that changed the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.

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Product Details :

Genre : Political Science
Author : Evan Wilson
Publisher : Clerisy Press
Release : 2009-09-01
Total Pages : 384 Pages
ISBN : 9781578603770


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle led a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was the first to fly across the United States in less than 24 hours and the first to fly “blind” (using only his plane’s instruments), a barnstormer well known for aerobatics, a popular racing pilot who won every major air race at least once, recipient of both the Congressional Medal of Honor and Presidential Medal of Freedom, a four-star general, and commander of both the 8th, 12th and 15th Air Forces. This memoir provides insights into the public and private world of Jimmy Doolittle and his family and sheds light on the drives and motivation of one of America's most influential and ambitious aviators.

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Product Details :

Genre : Biography & Autobiography
Author : Jonna Doolittle Hoppes
Publisher : Santa Monica Press
Release : 2005-03-01
Total Pages : 334 Pages
ISBN : 9781595809155